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Feb
10
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W is located about 189 NM east-southeast of Koror, Palau

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 123 NM southeast of Niue

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W will slowly strengthen as it moves over Palau…and then through the Philippine Islands into the South China Sea towards Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system…still well east-southeast of the main Philippine Islands

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has flared up, although remains disorganized and weak, with fragmented formative bands loosely feeding into an ill-defined center.

Upper level analysis shows a neutral environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear offset good poleward outflow…although sea surface temperatures are warm along the track.

TD 02W is forecast to track westward towards Mindanao, Philippines. Conditions will allow the system to gradually intensify to 40 knots between 36-48 hours. Thereafter, landfall and the rugged terrain of Mindanao will weaken the system down to 35 knots by 72 hours.

TD 02W will then cross the Sulu Sea into the South China Sea. Reduced wind shear and increased outflow will favor a slight intensification…bringing the system back up to 40 knots by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #10 are estimated be 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) will steadily strengthen, as it moves south of Niue…and over Tonga

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central convection has deepened although remains displaced slightly eastward of and obscures the center.

Upper level analysis shows favorable environment with moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear that is offset by good equatorward outflow. This however is being tempered by subsidence along the western flank.

TC 09P is being steered eastward, although this will veer to the west. The storm is forecast to steadily intensify under the influence of favorable conditions…peaking at 80 knots between 72 and 96 hours. Thereafter, there will be a weakening due to increasing wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #9 are estimated be 85 knots…with gusts to 105 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 482 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center, with formative banding and flaring convection.

Upper level analysis depicts 98P being located in a marginal environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, minimal poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…which will support further development over the next 48 hours.

The models generally agree that 98P will track eastward

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
09
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W is located about 66 NM west of Faraulep

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 110 NM south-southwest of Manua Islands

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W will slowly strengthen, as it moves close to Yap and Palu…and then through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a developing low level circulation center, with very little convection associated with it.

Upper level analysis shows moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and a developing poleward outflow channel. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are favorable for development.

TD 02W is forecast to track west-southwest over the next 24 hours, and then more westward. This system will experience favorable upper level conditions and move over warm water, allowing it to gradually strengthen to 50 knots within 2-days.

In the extended forecast periods, the system will maintain an intensity of near 50 knots as it approaches Mindanao, in the southern Philippines. By 96 hours the storm will weaken to 40 knots due to land interaction. Thereafter, the system will move into the Sulu Sea, where it will increase slightly in strength to 45 knots…as it moves over warmer water.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #6 are estimated be 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) will steadily strengthen, as it moves close to or over Pago Pago, Niue, and Tonga

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts deep convection located to the north of the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows favorable 10-15 wind shear and a good outflow channel…in addition to favorably warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 09P is being steered eastward, and will then turn southeastward, as it rapidly intensifies to 70 knots.

The storm will turn southward through 36 hours, followed by a track towards the southwest and then west…with an intensity of 80 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #5 are estimated be 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 150 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a defined low level circulation center, with light flaring convection located over the center.

The disturbance resides in a region of low 5-15 knot wind shear, moderate upper level divergence, and warm sea surface temperatures…which will support development.

The models indicate that the disturbance will track northeastward as it follows TC 09P, however, there is disagreement whether 98P will develop on its own…or be absorbed into 09P over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
08
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W is located about 243 NM southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 281 NM west of Pago Pago

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W will slowly strengthen, as it moves close to Yap and Palu…and then through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #1 are estimated be 20 knots…with gusts to 30 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) will steadily strengthen, as it moves close to over Pago Pago, Niue, and Tonga

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #1 are estimated be 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 170 NM southeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a defined low level circulation center, with persistent convection and banding beginning to wrap in.

The disturbance is located in an area of good poleward divergence, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

The models indicate that the disturbance will track to the west over the next several days, with little to no intensification.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
07
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 1219 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) will likely dissipate soon…while remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained a defined, although partially exposed low level circulation center, even as its convective structure continued to elongate in response to strong wind shear.

Although TC 07S is tracking through an area of strong 30+ mph wind shear aloft, and over cooler sea surface temperatures…which will lead to dissipation within 24 hours.

However, some models indicate a possible re-intensification beyond 24 hours…as the cyclone recurves southeastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #49 are estimated be 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 520 NM southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a  consolidating low level circulation center, covered by flaring convection.

Upper level analysis shows that the disturbance is located in an area of moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear, with strong poleward outflow and divergence aloft. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures will continue to support additional development of the disturbance.

Some models are in good agreement that 93W will move to the west and strengthen with time, while others maintain the circulation…although don’t intensify the disturbance.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

In addition, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 135 NM northwest of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center and flaring convection.

Upper level analysis indicates that 97P is located in a favorable area with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and a broad area of divergence.

Warm sea surface temperatures will continue to support the disturbance over the next 72-96 hours, until the system makes a poleward turn.

The models agree that 97P will strengthen over the next 72-96 hours, and track to the east-southeast in the near term.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 305 NM southeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Feb
06
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 1275 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) will gradually lose strength…while remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continues to maintain a weak convective signature, and a degree of wrap around a well-defined and partly exposed low level center.

Although TC 07S is tracking through an area of strong 30+ mph wind shear aloft, and over cool sea surface temperatures, a strong poleward outflow is providing ample ventilation to the associated convection.

The cyclone is being steered west, with this direction expected to continue. Increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will eventually erode the system and cause dissipation within 36 hours…if not sooner.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #45 are estimated be 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 447 NM southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized flaring convection and broad cyclonic turning. Meanwhile, microwave imagery reveals limited deep convection and no lower level structure is evident.

Upper level analysis shows weak, widespread divergence aloft in the areas of flaring convection, and low 10-15 knot shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorably warm.

Some models predict that 93W will move to the northwest and strengthen with time, while others maintain the circulation towards the Philippines…although don’t intensify the disturbance.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now medium.

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 210 NM northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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