Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 151 NM southeast of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots)

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) remains active in the far eastern Pacific Ocean…located approximately 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 246 NM south of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked north-northeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center remains under an area of deep thunderstorms, but is difficult to identify…as this convection remains poorly organized.

TC 01B is now moving under a lighter vertical wind shear aloft, blowing at only 10 knots (12 mph). TC Mahasen will maintain a northeasterly track, with only a slight increase in strength during the next 12 hours. This minor intensification will be short lived however, as this storm gets in closer to the coast of Bangladesh. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast has this system making landfall in about 24 hours…with weakening and dissipation expected overland within 36 hours.

Ships and small boats in this far northern part of the Bay of Bengal should remain well away from the influence of this storm. The fact that this storm is expected to reach only 50 knots (58 mph), rather than the previously forecast 70 knots (81 mph), is a very good thing. This is because the storm surge and pounding high surf, that would have inundated the low lying coastal plain, will be much less severe now. Nonetheless, there will be strong and gusty winds, very heavy flooding rainfall, and some high surf and surge as the storm reaches the coast, which will make for dangerous conditions for coastal residents. This storm will quickly weaken and dissipate as it interacts with the physical terrain features of Bangladesh, although bringing rain and gusty winds well inland…into Bangladesh and northern Myanmar as well.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin)…in the eastern Pacific

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) has spun up, as the first tropical cyclone of the 2013 hurricane season, in the eastern Pacific. It was located about 650 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and moving generally towards the west at near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph, with higher gusts to near 45 mph. Strengthening is forecast to occur during the next 48 hours, with this tropical depression becoming a tropical storm, taking on the name Alvin…as soon as later today.

The NHC forecast suggests that TS Alvin would then go on to become a hurricane by early this Friday morning. It would peak in strength then through Sunday night, dropping back down to a tropical storm by early next Monday morning. It’s moving by well offshore from the Mexican coast, with no land or islands in its path at this time. Ships in the area should steer clear of this strengthening tropical cyclone through the rest of this week, into the first half of next week.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Alvin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
Navy graphical track map
NOAA  satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Mahasen)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 377 NM south of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 377 NM south of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked northeastward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection (thunderstorms) have built back over the low level circulation center during the last several hours. Upper air analysis indicates that vertical wind shear has begun to decrease, showing a moderately strong 15-20 knots (17-23 mph)…supporting the increased convection noted above.

TC 01B is forecast to remain on a general northeasterly track, as it continues to move towards the Bangladesh coast. Along the way, TC Mahasen will be moving over very warm sea surface temperatures, reaching 29-30C (84-86F), which is favorable for increased strengthening. The easing of the vertical wind shearing aloft, will support this storm in gradually reaching the typhoon level in approximately 48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast has this system making landfall in about 72 hours…with weakening and dissipation as in moves inland thereafter.

Ships in the Bay of Bengal should be steering clear of this now strengthening storm, from its present position…all the way to the coast. Depending upon exactly where this storm comes ashore, there is a great danger to the coastal residents. The elevation of the land areas is locally very low, and highly populated. This would provide an opportunity for very dangerous storm surge and high surf conditions…potentially a great threat to low lying areas! Strong winds and very heavy, flooding rainfall would accompany this dissipating storm inland over Bangladesh into northern Myanmar as well.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying JTWC positions, segments, winds and population densities, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

The map above shows the forecast track for TC 01B, as it moves in a northeasterly direction towards the Bangladesh coast. This storm will move inland just to the east of the most highly populated areas, although will definitely have a major impact on the low lying areas fronting the coast. We can see the very light blue color of the Bay of Bengal, indicating the shallow waters of this delta region near the coast. This will afford high surf and dangerous storm surge waters to push inland a distance.

The local population along the immediate coastal plain, and for some distance inland, should be making preparations for the arrival of this high water. Depending upon what local emergency managers say, there could be a call for evacuating some areas near the storms entry into coast…and to the right of there for a distance as well. Heavy precipitation will add to the seriousness of this flooding threat, along with the attendant strong and gusty winds.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

Special Tropical Weather Outlook: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY…AND ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Mahasen)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 630 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India (Sustained winds of 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments, error cones, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) remains active in the Bay of Bengal…located approximately 630 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India. This cyclone has tracked northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Upper air analysis indicates favorable westward outflow, although that is being offset of moderate 15-20 knot (17-23 mph) vertical wind shear.

TC 01B is currently in a weak steering environment, and is expected to slowly track north over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, Mahasen is expected to accelerate, and track northeast. As this tropical cyclone gains latitude, a gradual intensification is expected…as the upper wind shear relaxes. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) suggests that a peak intensity of 70 knots (81 mph) in 72 hours.

As Mahasen moves towards the coast, upper level wind shear will increase, and the system begins interacting with land…with dissipation expected within 120 hours. There is a wide spread in model solutions to the upcoming forecast period. The JTWC has a low level of confidence in the outer forecast period, due to the variance of the models, especially as TC 01B curves towards the coast. The forecast track brings this system inland very near Chittagong, and Cox Bazar (Bangladesh)…with Chittagong being the second largest city in the country.

Ships in the Bay of Bengal should be steering clear of this soon to be strengthening storm, from its present position…all the way to the coast. Depending upon exactly where this storm comes ashore, there is a great danger to the coastal residents. The elevation of the land areas is locally very low, and highly populated. This would provide an opportunity for very dangerous storm surge and high surf conditions…potentially a great threat to low lying areas! Strong winds and very heavy, flooding rainfall would accompany the storm inland as well.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Mahasen)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Tropical cyclone 24S (Jamala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 820 NM east of Diego Garcia (Sustained winds of 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots)

Tropical cyclone 01B has formed in the North Indian Ocean…located approximately 1009 NM south of Chittagong, Bangladesh (Sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, strengthening tropical cyclone 24S (Jamala), with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 24S, now taking on the name Jamala, remains active over the waters of the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 820 NM east of the small island of Diego Garcia. This system has tracked south-southeast at a slow 03 knots during the past six hours. Satellite imagery reveals a partially exposed low level circulation center, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms displaced over the western part of the storm. Surface winds remain 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots…matching yesterday’s strength.

TC 24S is located within a marginal environment, under strong easterly vertical wind shear, which is running 30-40 knots (35-46 mph)…although offset by favorable poleward outflow.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentions that the strong wind shear is forecast to weaken, allowing for further consolidation, and intensification. TC 24S should peak at about 70 knots (81 mph) by the 72 hour mark, and then gradually weaken thereafter.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, TAOS Estimated Wind Impacts, strengthening tropical cyclone 01B, with JTWC positions, segments, and winds…over the North Indian Ocean

A new tropical cyclone has formed in the north Indian Ocean, called 01B…located approximately 1009 NM south of Chittagong, Bangladesh. This new cyclone has tracked northwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with improved deep convective banding. At the same time however, the vertical wind shear remains moderate to strong, 20-30 knots (23-35 mph).

TC 01B is forecast to track northwestward across the Bay of Bengal, with a turn poleward with time. TC 01B is expected to peak at 90 knots (104 mph) by the 96 hour mark. This system will generate heavy swell conditions, so that ships in the area should steer clear, as this storm increases in strength. It will remain away from any land/island areas over the next several days.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico satellite image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01B

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Jamala)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area