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Jun
23
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

However,  a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93E, has a medium to high chance of forming in the eastern Pacific Ocean…within the next 2-5 days

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the National Hurricane Center, shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves slowly west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in association with this feature.

Latest scatterometer data suggest moderate to fresh winds surround the low. The low will drift west-northwestward south of the coast of southern Mexico the next couple of days. This feature will be one to watch with interest…as there is the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s another tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 570 NM east-southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show weak and disorganized convection with mid-level rotation. Recent scatterometry data suggests a tropical wave at the surface.

Upper level analysis reveals a poor environment, with moderate to strong 15-25 knot wind shear…and weak outflow.

Global models show the system generally moving to the northwest over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the poor organization at the surface, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves slowly west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
22
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) remains active while moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico…located about 165 miles northwest of Morgan City, Louisiana

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, wind positions, for Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) is weakening over land, as it continues to move further inland…bringing heavy rains as a weakened tropical depression

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas early Thursday morning. Moisture from this weakening system will bring heavy rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.

Here are some rainfall totals as of 11am  this morning:

  • Alabama: 6.31 inches in Atmore…5.48 inches in Mobile
  • Florida: 8.44 inches in Pensacola…8.25 inches in Navarre
  • Georgia: 7.51 inches near Rocky Plains
  • Louisiana: 4.15 inches in New Orleans…4.12 inches near Houma…2.76 inches in Lake Charles
  • Mississippi: 9.79 inches at the Gulfport-Biloxi Airport…8.5 inches in Wiggins


Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this weakening tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TD 03L

Here’s the latest radar image with warnings for this system…along with an image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #12 shows that TC 03L had sustained 30 knot winds…with 40 mph gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), the circulation of Cindy is already well inland and weakening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 knots, although some areas could still observe tropical-storm-force winds in gusts associated with heavy squalls.

Additional weakening is forecast, and Cindy will degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow. Thereafter, the cyclone should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States.

Cindy is moving toward the north at 11 knots. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes embedded within the prevailing mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days.

Although Cindy is a tropical depression, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches over extreme eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern and eastern Arkansas through Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday morning. This may bring storm total rainfall in excess of 15 inches in some isolated locations. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Heavy rainfall will expand across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys today and across the central Appalachians Friday into Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected through Friday morning.

WIND: Gusts of tropical storm force in a few squalls are still possible mainly to the east of the depression.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is still possible along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions to the central Gulf Coast.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
22
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations

However,  a tropical disturbance has a low chance of forming in the eastern Pacific Ocean…within the next 2-5 days

According to the National Hurricane Center, a broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.

Slow development of this system is possible by early next week, while it moves westward to west-northwestward…parallel to the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) remains active in the Gulf of Mexico…located about 125 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, wind radii, positions, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

Closer view of Tropical Storm Cindy track

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) continues moving through the Gulf of Mexico…towards the northern gulf coast

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

As TS Cindy continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico, it will potentially bring major flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast and South…through late this week. Gusty winds, rip currents and isolated tornadoes are also in the latest forecast from the NHC.

Rainfall from Cindy will spread north and east Thursday through Friday, resulting in possible flooding from the south…northward into the Ohio Valley.

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TS 03L

Here’s a weather graphic showing the current alerts associated with this tropical system / Here’s the latest radar image for this system / An image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #8 shows that TC 03L had sustained 45 knot winds…with 55 mph gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center, and additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle.

However, there is more convection near the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is likely disrupting the convective organization.

Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45 knots. The data also show that the 34-knot wind radii have decreased over the northeastern quadrant.

Cindy is expected to turn northward, and then later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States. Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects on the convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall.

Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 hours. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday.

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
21
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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