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Dec
12
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96W…located approximately 510 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, with the animated version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an elongated low level circulation center, with the majority of the convection located in the western and southern peripheries.

Upper level analysis shows 96W is located in an area of low 5-10 knot wind shear, with decent divergence aloft, and good poleward outflow. Warm sea surface temperatures will support the system as it continues to develop.

Models are in good agreement that Invest 96W will be slow to develop over the next 24-48 hours, although will accelerate in development by 72 hours…as it tracks to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96W…located approximately 165 NM west of Palau

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, with the animated version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an elongated system with persistent deep convection and feeder bands beginning to develop to the north.

96W is located in an area of mostly favorable conditions, with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures…and low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.

Models show a gradually strengthening system, which slowly drifts poleward over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 12-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium 

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
10
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96W…located approximately 165 NM west of Palau

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with the animated version

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a poorly organized system, with limited flaring convection.

96W is located in an area of moderately favorable conditions, with upper level poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, although offset by moderate 20 knot wind shear.

Models do not show intensification, and are divided as to the future track of the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium 

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
09
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04B is located about 245 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 04B

Tropical Cyclone 04B is dissipating…as it moves through the Bay of Bengal towards India

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly decaying, exposed low level circulation center, with limited deep convection sheared well to the northeast.

The system is forecast to continue to weaken within an unfavorable environment, and dissipate within the next 12 hours.

The remnants  of TC 04B will track northeastward across northeast India into Bangladesh after 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 04B Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Dec
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

However, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 92B…located approximately 290 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts deep convection persisting along the northern periphery of an expansive low level circulation center.

92B is located in an area of moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear, and tracking into an area of higher shear to the north.

However, strong upper level divergence and passage over warm water should continue to fuel convective development over the next 24 hours or so, potentially allowing the system to reach the warning threshold.

Global models indicate 92B will maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen slightly as it tracks poleward in the near term. Weakening is expected after 24 hours as the system contends with increasing shear in the northern Bay of Bengal.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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