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May
22
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

An area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90L, is active in the Caribbean Sea…located just east of Belize

The window of opportunity for this disturbance to become a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm will increase, if the system can push into the central Gulf of Mexico, where sea water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this disturbance.

Here’s the 5-day NHC outlook graphic for this tropical disturbance.

No matter what the system does, it’s expected to bring wet weather for this upcoming holiday weekend.

This wet weather will be associated with a broad area of surface low pressure, which formed Monday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. These features will draw moisture northward from the tropics into the southeastern United States.

Here’s the current looping radar image for the eastern GOM and Florida

Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the NHC, a broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into the Florida peninsula.

Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

However, gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
21
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A is located about 684 miles south of Masirah Island

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 02A

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 02A will increase to the typhoon level of strength…before making landfall

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real time wind profile for this tropical storm

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 are estimated at 35 knots…with gusts to 45

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no tropical cyclones expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

May
21
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2018AL90/4KMIRIMG/2018AL90_4KMIRIMG_201805212100.GIF

An area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90L, is showing up in the Caribbean Sea…located east of the Yucatan Peninsula and south of Cuba

The western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico and Florida…is where the next early season tropical development may occur.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this disturbance.

Here’s the 5-day NHC outlook graphic for this tropical disturbance.

No matter what the system does, it’s expected to bring wet weather for this upcoming holiday weekend.

Here’s the current looping radar image for the eastern GOM and Florida

Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the NHC, a broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.

This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.

While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week, while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

May
20
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in orange

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

However, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, which is being referred to as Invest 92A…located approximately 755 NM south of Masirah Island, Oman

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an area of broad turning and flaring convection….with mid-level organization.

Upper level analysis indicates excellent poleward and equatorward outflow, low 5-15 wind shear, and very warm sea water temperatures.

Most of the models show the disturbance tracking generally to the north…and intensify it over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no tropical cyclones expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

May
19
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A (Sagar) is located about 88 miles south-southeast of Djibouti – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Retiring Tropical Cyclone 01A (Sagar)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Storm 01A (Sagar) is dissipating, having moved over land…and given its final warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real time wind profile for this tropical storm

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping tightly into a well-defined low level circulation center.

The current intensity has decreased slightly to 50 knots, based on a weakening trend with warming cloud tops temperatures.

TC 01A has made landfall, and will continue to track southwestward, over land. The system will rapidly weaken and will dissipate within 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #12 are estimated at 50 knots…with gusts to 65

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 92A…located approximately 877 NM south-southeast of Duqm, Oman

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

According to the JTWC, most of the models are in agreement that this disturbance will stay disorganized, and track slightly west for a few days…before moving north and intensifying.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no tropical cyclones expected during the next 5-days

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A (Sagar) – Final Warning

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC

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