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Jun
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud) is located about 30 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 04E is located about 90 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07W is located about 132 miles northeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 08W is located about 172 miles south-southwest of Taiwan

Tropical Storm 03E (Bud) remains active…and is about to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas

Here’s the latest information portrayed on this graphic

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm

Here’s a near time wind profile of 03E

According to the NHC, Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud’s wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily a large swirl of low clouds.

Some of the convective bands in the northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Luca. where sustained winds of 50 knots and a gust to 60 knots have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by local terrain.

Closer to the surface, a Mexican weather station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34 knots and a gust to 41 knots. Based on these data. Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 knots. The models remain in agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 hours, while crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula…emerging over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday afternoon.

As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by 36 hours and beyond. Bud’s intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours or so.

By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation, inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of the Gulf of California being warm, some convective banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling could occur.

For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud’s remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest Friday and Saturday…resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning and continuing into Friday evening.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_93E_201806141435.jpg

Tropical Depression 04E is now active…as it heads towards the Mexican coast

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical depression

Here’s a near time wind profile of 04E

According to the NHC, Overnight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the system was open on the northwestern side. High-resolution GOES-16 1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a well-enough defined circulation center. Since there is plenty of banded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the overnight scatterometer data.

A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow, leaving the depression in an area of light steering currents. Much of the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn northward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf of Mexico.

There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this poleward motion, however, with models faster than the rest of the guidance. This seems like a pretty clear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak steering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model over another one.

Thus, the official forecast shows a slow northward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and it should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is subject to large changes in the future. The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a few swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger gyre. After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with very warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady intensification.

This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is so close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening. The official forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model consensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike the official prediction), leading to a stronger storm. It has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season.

This is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the basin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind the previous record in 1974.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 07W is dissipating, as it moves offshore from the Japanese Islands – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone.

Here’s a near time wind profile of this tropical storm.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #4 were estimated at 35 knots…with gusts to 45

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 08W remains active…as it moves over Taiwan

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone.

Here’s a near time wind profile of this tropical depression.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were estimated at 30 knots…with gusts to 40

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 04E

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W Final Warning

JTWC texual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 08W

JTWC texual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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