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Jun
13
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud) is located about 175 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07W is located about 200 miles west-southwest of Kadena, AB

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for Tropical Storm 03E (Bud)

Tropical Storm 03E (Bud) remains active…and continues its weakening trend offshore from Mexico

Bud was the second Category 4 hurricane in four days in the Eastern Pacific Ocean….after Aletta.

Bud will approach Baja California Thursday as a tropical storm…with its outer bands of heavy rain, high surf and rip currents near the coast of southwest Mexico.

Here’s the latest information portrayed on this graphic

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm

Here’s a near time wind profile of 03E

According to the NHC, After steadily weakening today, Bud’s intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 knots on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday.

After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler sea water temperatures, and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-hour position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain.

Bud’s remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_93E_201806140305.jpg

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure, being referred to as Invest 93E centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined since yesterday.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this area of disturbed weather

According to the NHC, environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward.

By the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further organization. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in a day or so and continuing into the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 07W is now active, as it moves very close to Okinawa, and then towards or offshore from the Japanese Islands

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone.

Here’s a near time wind profile of this tropical storm.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were estimated at 35 knots…with gusts to 45

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Additionally, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 95 NM southeast of Hong Kong

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical disturbance

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 410 NM southeast of Guam

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical disturbance

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07W

JTWC texual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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