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Jun
12
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud) is located about 300 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

Hurricane 03E (Bud) remains active…although is weakening rapidly

Bud was the second Category 4 hurricane in four days in the Eastern Pacific Ocean….after Aletta.

Bud will approach Baja California Thursday as a tropical storm…with its outer bands of heavy rain, high surf and rip currents near the coast of southwest Mexico.

Here’s the latest information portrayed on this graphic

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this hurricane

Here’s a near time wind profile of 03E

According to the NHC, Uupwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing precipitously.

Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 knots. The ridge is not expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a deepening trough extending from California southward should cause Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours. After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4.

Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days, which will zap the hurricane of its energy, and cause it to steadily weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity. Bud is likely to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula.

Despite Bud’s expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48 hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz. Bud’s remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend…resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing…and another with a high chance of developing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 510 NM southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical disturbance

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 92W…located approximately 373 NM south-southeast of Guam

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical disturbance

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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