Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Jun
11
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) is located about 237 miles east of Yokosuka, JapanFinal Warning

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud) is located about 395 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) is retiring, as it moves by well offshore to the east of the Japanese Islands – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone.

Here’s a near time wind profile of this tropical storm.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the cloud field around the low level circulation center continues to expand.

Environmental analysis indicates TC Maliksi is experiencing moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…along excellent poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are now marginal.

This storm will continue to accelerate as it tracks northeastward. TS 06W will continue to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, including cooler sea surface temperatures, and increased wind shear…which will lead to a steady decrease in intensity.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #15 were estimated at 45 knots…with gusts to 55

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

Hurricane 03E (Bud) remains active, and is a category 3 hurricane…as it passes by offshore from southern Mexico

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this hurricane

Here’s a near time wind profile of 03E

According to the NHC, Bud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its intensity. On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. On the other hand, the central dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the convective cloud tops have been warming as well. Bud’s motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 knots. The hurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near the U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will cause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja California Peninsula.

The track models are tightly clustered, with the only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower and to the west of the other models. Since shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days or so, and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest limiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat content. Upwelling of colder water is likely due to the hurricane’s expected slow motion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick weakening trend.

The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the most dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains Bud’s intensity for another 24 hours or so…before showing much weakening. The NHC intensity forecast has Bud falling below hurricane intensity near the 48-hour mark (late Wednesday). Continued weakening is expected as Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California Peninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over the Mexican state of Sonora by day 5.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days…and begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92W/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

A tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 92W, is active about 601 NM east-southeast of Guam.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) Final Warning

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

© 2015-2018 Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – All rights reserved.  Commercial use is permitted only with explicit approval of PDC