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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) is located about 286 miles south of Yokosuka, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 02E (Aletta) is located about 585 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud) is located about 210 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi)

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) is moving by well offshore to the southeast of the Japanese Islands

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone.

Here’s a near time wind profile of this tropical storm.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the deep convection around the low level circulation center has decreased considerably over the past few hours.

Upper level analysis indicates TC Maliksi is experiencing good poleward and equatorward outflow, along with favorably low 5-10 knot wind shear…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

This storm will continue to accelerate as it tracks northeastward. By 12 hours, TS 06W will begin to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increased wind shear…which will lead to a steady decrease in intensity throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Maximum sustained surface winds as of the JTWC Warning #13 were estimated at 45 knots…with gusts to 55

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclones 02E (Aletta)…and 03E (Bud)

Tropical Storm 02E (Aletta) remains active in the northeast Pacific…and continues to slowly weaken

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm

Here’s a near time wind profile of both 02E…and 03E to the east

According to the NHC, Aletta is maintaining its sheared structure. Although cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours, the tropical storm is still producing persistent convection in the northwestern quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast. Aletta has been moving along a tongue of moderately warm water, which may have allowed convection to persist up to this point, but the cyclone will soon cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient, and enter into a much more stable environment. Once that occurs, the cyclone will likely lose all convection and become a remnant low, gradually spinning down over the course of a few days. While not explicitly shown in this forecast, it is possible that Aletta will dissipate by the middle to end of the week.

The tropical storm has been moving toward the west-northwest, or 285 degrees/6 knot, this evening, but a westward motion is expected to resume overnight. All of the dynamical models continue to indicate that Aletta will be steered slowly westward by a mid-level ridge to the north for the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn toward the west-southwest will likely occur as the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering feature. From day 3 onward, the cyclone is expected to become trapped in light low-level flow between a high pressure system to the northwest and Hurricane Bud to the east, so the NHC forecast shows little to no movement.

Hurricane 03E (Bud) remains active, remains a category 1 hurricane…as it moves by offshore from southern Mexico

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this low end hurricane

Here’s a near time wind profile of 02E…and 03E

According to the NHC, Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening. Shortwave infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that Bud’s inner core and banding features are becoming better defined, and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite channels. However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the strongest convection remaining to the east of the center. The 00Z Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given the improved structure of the inner core during the past several hours.

Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken, allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward motion toward the Baja California peninsula. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the various consensus aids. This prediction is largely an update of the previous one.

A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification. Based on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours. This forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend. More significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls in line with the guidance thereafter.


RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Monday afternoon.


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02E (Aletta)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area


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