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May
15
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at this time

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying a weak tropical disturbance circled in red

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91A/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

However, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, which is being referred to as Invest 91A…located approximately 55 NM southwest Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this area of disturbed weather.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

Upper level analysis shows improving poleward outflow and divergence aloft, which is supporting deeper convection. Wind shear is light to moderate 10-20 knots, while sea surface temperatures are very warm.

Meanwhile, models indicate that this system will track westward into the Gulf of Aden…and remain over water for several more days. It’s expected  that favorable environmental conditions will allow 91A to intensify to a borderline tropical cyclone with 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

>>> Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, which will run until November 30.

>>> Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 15, 8, and 4, respectively.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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