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May
15
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

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However, an area of disturbed weather remains active in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico…despite the fact that we’re still two weeks away from the beginning of the hurricane season

Four of the past six years have had named storms before June 1st, including 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Two of those years… 2012 and 2016…featured two named tropical storms before June 1st.

This disturbance is running out of time for a tropical or even subtropical depression to form. Marginal sea water temperatures over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will prevent organization…and this system will migrate onshore over the Gulf coast by Wednesday.

Here’s a looping satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

Here’s the current radar image over and near Florida

Here’s the Precipitation Outlook map through Friday

This system will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days while the low moves generally northward.

This tropical moisture will also prompt downpours that result in rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across other parts of the Southeast…and eventually into the Northeast later this week. This rainfall is much-needed in central and southern Florida, as well as parts of Georgia and South Carolina, where drought conditions have recently developed.

According to the NHC, a broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas.

This system has not become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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