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Feb
15
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is located about 70 NM south-southeast of Puerto Princesa Philippines – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 220 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying  Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and error cone for retiring TC 02W (Sanba)

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) will be further weakening as it moves across the South China Sea

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a fully exposed broad low level circulation, and no associated convection in the vicinity.

Environmental analysis reveals the system is in an area of moderate to strong 20-25 knot south easterly wind shear, which has contributed  to the progressive disorganization of this depression.

Sea surface temperatures in the Sulu Sea are marginally favorable, although they decrease in the South China Sea.

Upper level analysis shows that divergence aloft has abated significantly, stifling any remaining convection associated with the system.

TD Sanba is forecast to track  west-northwestward close to Puerto Princesa, Philippines, and onward into the South China Sea, and is not expected to to reintensify.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #27 are estimated be 20 knots…with gusts to 30 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is at the Category 2 level as it moves by…just southeast of New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a symmetrical system, with a well-defined 40 NM eye.

Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, including very warm sea surface temperatures…and excellent radial outflow.

After 24 hours TC 09P will gradually turn southwest then southeastward. Wind shear is expected to gradually increase.

TC Gita will move over cooler water as it tracks poleward, and steadily weaken, and be reduced to 40 knots within 120 hours…as it crosses New Zealand near Wellington.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #29 are estimated be 95 knots…with gusts to 115 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, being referred to as Invest 91S…located approximately 156 NM east-northeast of Broome, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating region of low level turning, with resurgent flaring convection. The main area of deep convection is located on the coast, displaced to the west of the low level circulation center…which is still over land.

Strong divergence aloft and radial outflow in the vicinity of 91S are fueling the deep convection.

Invest 91S is located in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, which is shearing the convection from the center.

Favorably warm sea surface temperatures and lower wind shear await this disturbance once it emerges over water to the west.

Global models predict that 91S will track over water over the next 18-24 hours and rapidly develop in this favorable environment.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23-28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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