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Feb
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is located about 447 NM south-southwest of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 269 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 02W (Sanba)

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is moving across the Sulu Sea…and then into the South China Sea

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a reorganizing although partially exposed low level circulation center sheared to the southeast of flaring convection.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear. However, a robust poleward outflow is providing ventilation to the sheared convection…enabling recent flaring convection. Sea surface temperatures are marginally warm.

TD Sanba is expected to struggle to maintain its intensity, as it skirts the northern tip of Borneo, and tracks westward into the South China Sea.

After 36 hours, the system will move over increasingly cooler water in the central South China Sea, leading to eventual dissipation within 72 hours…possibly sooner.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #25 are estimated be 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is at the Category 3 level as it moves by southwest of Fiji…tracking towards Noumea, New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a highly symmetrical tropical cyclone with a 30 NM eye feature.

Environmental conditions remain favorable, with excellent radial outflow…with very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 09P will gradually turn more southwest then southward, and finally towards the southeast. Wind shear is expected to gradually increase.

TC Gita will move over cooler water as it tracks poleward, and steadily weaken, and be reduced to 55 knots within 120 hours…as it approaches New Zealand.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #24 are estimated be 105 knots…with gusts to 130 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abiosair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 91S…located approximately 191 NM south-southwest of Darwin, Australia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating region of low level turning, with large areas of flaring convection…beginning to wrap in as convective bands.

Invest 91S is currently in an area of low wind shear, and strong divergence aloft. Sea surface temperatures just offshore. 91S is currently consolidating over land. Models indicate 91S will track southwest along the Australian coastline. It’s unclear whether the system will track over water, although rapid consolidation into a tropical cyclone is highly probable if and when it does.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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