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Feb
13
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is located about 437 NM south of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 184 NM south-southwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii for TC 02W (Sanba)

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is moving through the Philippine Islands…into the South China Sea towards Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection to the north of the low level center associated with TD 02W.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. However, a strong poleward outflow in addition to warm sea surface temperatures are favorable. Sanba is still interacting with land, which has led to a slight weakening of the system.

TD Sanba will track generally westward before turning slightly northwestward…while maintaining an intensity of 30 knots as it crosses the Sulu Sea over the next 24 hours. Beyond 24 hours, this TD will track over Palawan and then into the South China Sea. The warm waters in the South China sea will allow a slight intensificatiion to 35 knots by 36 hours.

In the extended forecast periods, TD 02W will move over cooler water and will again decrease in strength. Beyond 72 hours, the system continues to weaken due to an unfavorably cool sea surface. The system will make landfall in Vietnam shortly before 96 hours…dissipating as it tracks inland.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #22 are estimated be 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is now at Category 4…as it moves by south of Fiji

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

Gita is passing well south of Fiji’s largest islands, including its capital city, Suva. There’s a chance that some rainbands, containing gusty winds could still affect that nation…particularly in the smaller southern islands.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a well organized and symmetric tropical cyclone with a distinct eye feature.

Upper level analysis shows moderate 25-30 knot wind shear…which is being offset by a strong poleward outflow channel.

Sea surface temperatures remain favorable…as the storm moves generally westward, then southwest and south.

TC Gita will move over cooler water, which will allow it to decrease in intensity at a steady rate through 48 hours. Increasing wind shear will also help weaken intensity to 95 knots by 48 hours…and down to 50 knots by 120 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #21 are estimated be 115 knots…with gusts to 140 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abiosair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 91S…located approximately 54 NM southeast of Darwin, Australia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad region of low level turning with flaring convection beginning to form convective bands.

Invest 91S is currently in a marginal 15-20 knot wind shear environment, although is benefiting from strong divergence aloft. Sea surface temperatures in the region are warm, although 91S is currently partially over land.

Models agree that this disturbance will transit over water, over land…or partially over both…with a chance of development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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