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Feb
12
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) is located about 403 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 259 NM southeast of Suva, Fiji

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 02W (Sanba)

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) will move through the Philippine Islands…into the South China Sea towards Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system…east of the Philippine Islands.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep flaring although disorganized convection, which is displaced northwest of the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear. However, a strong poleward outflow in addition to warm sea surface temperatures…is providing ample ventilation to the associated convection.

TS Sanba will track generally west-northwest towards the southern Philippines through the next 12 hours. Thereafter, the storm will move more westward after making landfall over northern Mindanao just after 12 hours. Land interaction will slightly weaken the system back to 35 knots, however, by 36 hours it will exit back over water in the Sulu Sea…and regain 35 knot TS strength as it tracks towards Palawan and into the South China Sea.

In the extended forecast periods, TS 02W will track more northwestward towards Southern Vietnam…although be weakening to 25 knots before a second landfall and dissipating over southern Vietnam within 120 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #18 are estimated be 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 09P (Gita)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) impacted Tonga with very stormy Category 4 conditions…moving south of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a looping satellite image showing TC Gita approaching, striking…and moving away Tonga

Destructive winds, storm surge flooding, and torrential rainfall occurred in the capital of Tonga. The storm’s path took the northern eyewall across the Tongan islands of Tongatapu and ‘Enu, including the Tongan capital of Nuku’alofa…with an estimated population of 107,000.

According to NOAA’s historical hurricane tracks, only one other Category 4 tropical cyclone had passed within 200 miles of Nukuʻalofa in modern history, which was January 2014’s Cyclone Ian.

After striking Tonga, Gita will pass well south of Fiji’s largest islands, including its capital city, Suva. There’s a chance that some rainbands containing gusty winds could still affect that nation…particularly in the smaller southern islands.

TC Gita caused damage after brushing Samoa and American Samoa late last week, with flooding rain and damaging winds.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a 10 NM eye surrounded by deep convection…the majority of which is located north of the eye.

Upper level analysis reveals that the system is in an area of moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear…which is limiting intensification.

TC Gita will track westward the next 36 hours, and has peaked at 125 knots, with a weakening trend forecast. Initially, this weakening trend will be due to increasing wind shear, and eventually cooler sea surface temperatures along the upcoming track.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #17 are estimated be 120 knots…with gusts to 145 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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