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Feb
10
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W is located about 189 NM east-southeast of Koror, Palau

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 123 NM southeast of Niue

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W will slowly strengthen as it moves over Palau…and then through the Philippine Islands into the South China Sea towards Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system…still well east-southeast of the main Philippine Islands

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has flared up, although remains disorganized and weak, with fragmented formative bands loosely feeding into an ill-defined center.

Upper level analysis shows a neutral environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear offset good poleward outflow…although sea surface temperatures are warm along the track.

TD 02W is forecast to track westward towards Mindanao, Philippines. Conditions will allow the system to gradually intensify to 40 knots between 36-48 hours. Thereafter, landfall and the rugged terrain of Mindanao will weaken the system down to 35 knots by 72 hours.

TD 02W will then cross the Sulu Sea into the South China Sea. Reduced wind shear and increased outflow will favor a slight intensification…bringing the system back up to 40 knots by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #10 are estimated be 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) will steadily strengthen, as it moves south of Niue…and over Tonga

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this system

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central convection has deepened although remains displaced slightly eastward of and obscures the center.

Upper level analysis shows favorable environment with moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear that is offset by good equatorward outflow. This however is being tempered by subsidence along the western flank.

TC 09P is being steered eastward, although this will veer to the west. The storm is forecast to steadily intensify under the influence of favorable conditions…peaking at 80 knots between 72 and 96 hours. Thereafter, there will be a weakening due to increasing wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #9 are estimated be 85 knots…with gusts to 105 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 482 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center, with formative banding and flaring convection.

Upper level analysis depicts 98P being located in a marginal environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, minimal poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…which will support further development over the next 48 hours.

The models generally agree that 98P will track eastward

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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