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Feb
09
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02W is located about 66 NM west of Faraulep

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) is located about 110 NM south-southwest of Manua Islands

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W will slowly strengthen, as it moves close to Yap and Palu…and then through the Philippine Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a developing low level circulation center, with very little convection associated with it.

Upper level analysis shows moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and a developing poleward outflow channel. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are favorable for development.

TD 02W is forecast to track west-southwest over the next 24 hours, and then more westward. This system will experience favorable upper level conditions and move over warm water, allowing it to gradually strengthen to 50 knots within 2-days.

In the extended forecast periods, the system will maintain an intensity of near 50 knots as it approaches Mindanao, in the southern Philippines. By 96 hours the storm will weaken to 40 knots due to land interaction. Thereafter, the system will move into the Sulu Sea, where it will increase slightly in strength to 45 knots…as it moves over warmer water.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #6 are estimated be 25 knots…with gusts to 35 knots

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) will steadily strengthen, as it moves close to or over Pago Pago, Niue, and Tonga

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts deep convection located to the north of the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows favorable 10-15 wind shear and a good outflow channel…in addition to favorably warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 09P is being steered eastward, and will then turn southeastward, as it rapidly intensifies to 70 knots.

The storm will turn southward through 36 hours, followed by a track towards the southwest and then west…with an intensity of 80 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #5 are estimated be 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in red above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 150 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a defined low level circulation center, with light flaring convection located over the center.

The disturbance resides in a region of low 5-15 knot wind shear, moderate upper level divergence, and warm sea surface temperatures…which will support development.

The models indicate that the disturbance will track northeastward as it follows TC 09P, however, there is disagreement whether 98P will develop on its own…or be absorbed into 09P over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 28-33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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