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Feb
07
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 1219 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) will likely dissipate soon…while remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained a defined, although partially exposed low level circulation center, even as its convective structure continued to elongate in response to strong wind shear.

Although TC 07S is tracking through an area of strong 30+ mph wind shear aloft, and over cooler sea surface temperatures…which will lead to dissipation within 24 hours.

However, some models indicate a possible re-intensification beyond 24 hours…as the cyclone recurves southeastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #49 are estimated be 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 520 NM southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a  consolidating low level circulation center, covered by flaring convection.

Upper level analysis shows that the disturbance is located in an area of moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear, with strong poleward outflow and divergence aloft. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures will continue to support additional development of the disturbance.

Some models are in good agreement that 93W will move to the west and strengthen with time, while others maintain the circulation…although don’t intensify the disturbance.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

In addition, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 135 NM northwest of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center and flaring convection.

Upper level analysis indicates that 97P is located in a favorable area with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and a broad area of divergence.

Warm sea surface temperatures will continue to support the disturbance over the next 72-96 hours, until the system makes a poleward turn.

The models agree that 97P will strengthen over the next 72-96 hours, and track to the east-southeast in the near term.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 98P…located approximately 305 NM southeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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