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Feb
06
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) is located about 1275 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 07S (Cebile)

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile) will gradually lose strength…while remaining away from land over the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continues to maintain a weak convective signature, and a degree of wrap around a well-defined and partly exposed low level center.

Although TC 07S is tracking through an area of strong 30+ mph wind shear aloft, and over cool sea surface temperatures, a strong poleward outflow is providing ample ventilation to the associated convection.

The cyclone is being steered west, with this direction expected to continue. Increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will eventually erode the system and cause dissipation within 36 hours…if not sooner.

Maximum sustained surface winds, as of the JTWC warning #45 are estimated be 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 447 NM southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized flaring convection and broad cyclonic turning. Meanwhile, microwave imagery reveals limited deep convection and no lower level structure is evident.

Upper level analysis shows weak, widespread divergence aloft in the areas of flaring convection, and low 10-15 knot shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorably warm.

Some models predict that 93W will move to the northwest and strengthen with time, while others maintain the circulation towards the Philippines…although don’t intensify the disturbance.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now medium.

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 210 NM northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cebile)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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