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Jan
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 362 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 06S…and a tropical disturbance circled in yellow

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move directly over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has a band of deep convection wrapping into a small area of centrally located convection.

Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for further development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 06S has been nearly stationary due to a weak steering environment, although the system is forecast to track slowly to the west-northwest over the next 36 hours. Thereafter, the storm will accelerate to the southwest. and is forecast to steadily intensify through 72 hours.

TC Berguitta will begin weakening after 72 hours, as the environment becomes less favorable, with increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #10 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 99S…located approximately 364 NM northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating mid-level circulation, with improving convective banding.

Upper level analysis indicates light to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, with fair equatorward outflow…which is conducive for potential further development.

Sea surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel are also supportive for development.

The models generally track a weak circulation westward into the African continent.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 266 NM east of Singapore, Malaysia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection with some mid-level turning. The system appears to be dissipating, and models have continued to move it slowly north.

The disturbance is currently located in a slightly favorable environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear…and has good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures to work with.

The models remain mixed as to how the system will track, although indicate that the most likely scenario will keep it in the vicinity of the Malaysia Peninsula…drifting slowly westward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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