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Jan
13
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 364 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for retiring TC 06S

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an area of persistent convection, which has slightly dissipated over the past six hours.

Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for further development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 06S is forecast to slowly track to the west, then shift to the west-northwest through 48 hours, then accelerating to the southwest.

TC Berguitta will steadily intensify throughout the forecast period, reaching a peak of 95 knots around 96 hours…before weakening slightly as the environment becomes less favorable.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 231 NM east of Singapore, Malaysia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection with some mid-level turning. The system appears to be dissipating, and models have continued to back off on development.

The disturbance is currently located in an unfavorable environment with high 25-30 knot wind shear…and has good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

The models are mixed as to how the system will track, although indicate that the most likely scenario will keep it in the vicinity of the Malaysia Peninsula…drifting slowly westward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Briguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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