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Jan
12
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) is located about 68 NM east of Port Hedland, Australia – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 06S is located about 501 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for retiring TC 05S (Joyce)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) will dissipate as it moves further inland

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a system now inland, with strong central convection and banding features.

Animated radar imagery from Port Hedland, Australia shows moderate to heavy precipitation bands, with a central vortex just east.

A deep layered subtropical ridge to the southeast will steer TC 05S on a southwestward track over western Australia.

Land interaction will weaken the system and TC Joyce will fully dissipate over land by 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #12 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for retiring TC 06S

Tropical Cyclone 06S remains active…heading towards Mauritius and La Reunion Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 214 NM east of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection over the western periphery of a somewhat defined although consolidating low level circulation center.

The disturbance is currently located in a marginally favorable environment with good divergence aloft. There is low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

The models are mixed as to how the system will track, although indicate that the most likely scenario will take it west and intensify.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 06S 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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