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Jan
11
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) is located about 118 NM southwest of Broome, Australia

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/sh0518.gif

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) will continue to move along the NW Australian coast…and then inland

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring central convection and shallow banding features wrapping into the center.

Animated radar imagery from Broome, Australia provides a good depiction of the circulation center tracking southward, and was located just offshore.

Upper level analysis shows a very favorable environment, with low wind shear and dual channel outflow. Sea surface temperatures in the area are extremely warm.

During the next 12-18 hours, while TC 05S is tracking over the open ocean, environmental conditions will remain favorable, and the storm is forecast to intensify to 55 knots.

At around the 18 hour point, the storm will make landfall east of Port Hedland, then move southwestward  over land and fully dissipate within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #10 were 45 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abiosair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97S…located approximately 500 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed and quickly consolidating low level circulation center…with strong, flaring convection being sheared to the west of the center.

Upper level analysis indicates good diffluence being offset by strong 25-30 knot wind shear, with the system moving eastward into an area of improving wind shear. In addition, favorably warm sea surface temperatures are also present.

The models are in agreement that the system will strengthen to tropical cyclone intensity, although not during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 214 NM east of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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