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Jan
10
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) is located about 69 NM north-northwest of Broome, Australia

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is located about 1030 NM southeast of La Reunion – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 05S

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) will continue to move along the NW Australian coast…and then inland

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating system just offshore Cape Leveque, Australia…showing little movement.

Upper level analysis shows very little wind shear and excellent poleward and equatorward outflow channels. Sea surface temperatures in the area are very warm…and conducive for intensification.

TC 05S has remained nearly stationary, and over the next 48 hours will remain just offshore over the warm open water, and with favorable upper level conditions is forecast to quickly consolidate and strengthen to 55 knots.

In near 48 hours this storm will make landfall east of Port Hedland and begin to dissipate. Land interaction as TC 05S moves over western Australia will weaken the system…with full dissipation by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 04S (Irving)

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is dissipating in the South Indian Ocean…staying away from land – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly weakening system with a fully exposed low level circulation center…and weak convective banding confined to the southern semi-circle.

Upper level analysis shows a strong poleward outflow channel…with wind shear beginning to increase.

TC 04S is moving quickly at 24 knots, and over the next 24 hours will accelerate further towards the southeast.

TC 04S will rapidly complete its extra-tropical transition by the 24 hour point.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abiosair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97S…located approximately 335 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, along with what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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