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Jan
08
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is located about 472 NM southeast of Europa Island

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is located about 762 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for TC’s 03S (Ava)…and 045 (Irving)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is now well offshore to the south of Madagascar…and will continue to move away over the open ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that convection remains weak, mainly centered east of the low level circulation system…associated with TC 03S.

Upper level analysis shows favorably low wind shear of 10-15 knots, weak equatorward outflow, and moderate poleward outflow…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 03S will continue to track southward through 24 hours, and maintain an intensity of 40 knots through 36 hours

Thereafter, TC Ava will begin to interact with a deep trough, tracking southwestward while weakening.

Wind shear will increase, and cooler sea surface temperatures will contribute to this weakening process. This will trigger extra-tropical transition…which will be completed within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #25 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…although staying away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep and persistent convection which is beginning to decrease in strength.

Upper level analysis shows moderate 15-20 knot wind shear and a well defined outflow channel. Sea surface temperatures remain favorable.

TC 04S will move southwestward through 36 hours, and then should turn southward. By 48 hours, the storm will begin to move southeastward and accelerate, as it begins to interact with the prevailing westerlies…and begin extra-tropical transition.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #12 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abiosair.jpg

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 96S…located approximately 307 NM east-northeast of Broome, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery showed a partially exposed and moderately defined low level circulation center…with convection centralized to the northwest.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment, with weak 5-10 knot wind shear, and moderate poleward outflow.

Models indicate that 96S will remain over land through the next 42 hours. Beyond that point, the disturbance will quickly consolidate over water…into a tropical cyclone strength system before moving back over northwest Australia within 90 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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