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Jan
07
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is located about 430 NM southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is located about 786 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for TC’s 03S (Ava)…and 045 (Irving)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) has moved offshore to the east of Madagascar…and will continue to move away

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows convection remains weak, although has slightly improved around the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment, with good radial outflow, and low wind shear ranging from 5-10 knots…along with favorably warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 03S will continue to track southward, through the next 48 hours, as favorable conditions will allow the system to gradually increase in strength….reaching a peak of 45 knots within 36 hours.

Beginning by 48 hours, TC Ava will turn sharply southeastward, with a significant weakening as it tracks over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is also active in the South Indian Ocean…although staying away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating system with a developing eye.

Environmental analysis shows moderate 15-20 knot wind shear and developing outflow channels. Sea surface temperatures remain favorable.

TC 04S will move west-southwestward through 72 hours, and should intensify under favorable environmental conditions to a peak of 90 knots by 36 hours…before beginning to weaken.

After 72 hours, TC 04S will recurve and accelerate…beginning its extra-tropical transitions.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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