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Jan
06
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is located about 396 NM west-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is located about 954 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is impacting the east side of Madagascar…bringing stormy weather and rough seas to the coastal areas

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts weak convection due to land interaction, wrapping around the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows favorable wind shear ranging from 10-15 knots, along with good poleward and equatorward outflow. However, land interaction will continue to contribute to a weakening trend through the next 24 hours.

TC 03S will continue to track southward, and then turn back over water and begin to slowly re-intensify within 36 hours.

Within 72 hours, the storm will reach an intensity of 55 knots, and then shortly thereafter begin to weaken…as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving) is also active in the South Indian Ocean…although staying away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts persistent convection, which surrounds the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows moderate to strong wind shear of 20-25 knots. Meanwhile, both poleward and equatorward outflow channels are continuing to develop…and sea surface temperatures remain favorable for development.

TC 04S is moving west-southwestward, and after 12 hours will gradually turn southwestward.

This storm will continue to intensify under favorable environmental conditions…peaking at near 70 knots within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Irving)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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