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Jan
05
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) is located about 374 NM west-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for TC 03S (Ava)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…impacting the east coast of Madagascar

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a 10 NM eye feature becoming cloud filled and now over land near Tamatave, Madagascar.

TC 03S will is forecast to track along the coast of eastern Madagascar, re-emerging over open water within 24 hours. Land interaction will weaken the storm significantly to 65 knots, and with environmental conditions remaining favorable, this intensity should be maintained as TC 03S tracks poleward over the Indian Ocean.

After 72 hours, there is increasing uncertainty in the forecast track, especially beyond 120 hours, whether the storm will take a turn towards the west…or the east.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #13 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95S…located approximately 185 NM west of Cocos Island, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center partially covered by flaring convection. Microwave imagery showed deep convection only in the western semi-circle of the low level circulation center.

Invest 95S is located in an area of high 30-40 knot wind shear, which would limit development. However, upper level analysis depicts an otherwise favorable environment, with moderate poleward and equatorward outflow, supporting deep convection…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

Models show development within 24 hours. While 95S has remained nearly stationary for the last six hours, it is forecast to track southwestward in the South Indian Ocean.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. 

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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