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Dec
05
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) is located about 444 NM south-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for dissipating TC 03B (Ockhi)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) is dissipating…as it moves through the Arabian Sea towards India

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly decaying, broad low level circulation center, with limited deep convection sheared well northeast of the center…due to strong 40-50 knot southerly wind shear.

TC 03B will continue to track poleward within the strong southerly mid-latitude flow, and is expected to complete its extra-tropical transition within the next 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #23 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 653 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows disorganized flaring convection shearing to the northwest faster than the movement of the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates 93W remains in an area of moderate to strong 20-30 knot wind shear, offset by very favorable diffluence aloft. Warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for TC formation.

Global models indicate 93W will track north to northwest…with intensification likely in the future.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 750 NM south-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows an elongated circulation with flaring convection located to the north of the low level circulation center.

93W is currently located in a favorable environment due to low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate 93W will track poleward over the next 2-days with weak development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

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