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Dec
04
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) is located about 483 NM south-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is located about 402 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 03B (Ockhi)

 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/thumbnails/image/ockhi.a2017338.0620.500m.jpg?itok=z61bDJ3E

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) remains active…as it moves through the Arabian Sea towards India

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring central convection being sheared to the northeast.

Upper level analysis shows that wind shear has been steadily increasing over the past 6-hours.

TC 03B is tracking northeastward through the remainder of the forecast period.

An approaching trough of low pressure will soon increase wind shear, this combined with cooler waters and dry air entrainment, will significantly weaken the storm over the next 48 hours.

This storm is forecast to dissipate below tropical cyclone strength just after 36 hours, with the remnant low making landfall near the Gulf of Khambhat within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for dissipating TC 01S (Dahlia)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is dissipating…as it moves through the South Indian Ocean – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates deep convection is beginning to become decoupled from the low level circulation center, and moving off to the southeast.

TC 01S is moving southward, and due to declining sea surface temperatures and persistent wind shear, Dahlia is expected to continue its weakening trend…leading to dissipation over water.

The center is forecast to remain together, with bouts of flaring convection over the next 24 hours. However, increasing wind shear and cooler water temperatures will mitigate the possibility of convective consolidation…and the system will soon dissipate within 24 hours.

Some global models suggest the remnant circulation could eventually track back into more favorable conditions, however regeneration isn’t forecast at this time.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 778 NM west-northwest of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows disorganized flaring convection and low level turning.

Upper level analysis indicates 93W remains in an area of light to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear, with favorable diffluence aloft. Warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for TC formation.

Global models indicate 93W will track north to northwest into the Bay of Bengal…and develop over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

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