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Dec
03
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

The 2017 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has ended. Routine issuance of the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2018 for the Eastern Pacific. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The PDC will begin issuing its Tropical Cyclone Activity Reports for the Eastern Pacific on the 15th of May, 2018.

The 2017 Central Pacific hurricane season has ended. Routine issuance of the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1st, 2018. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The PDC will begin issuing its Tropical Cyclone Activity Reports for the Central Pacific on the 1st of June, 2018 as well.

The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was an active one, featuring 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially started on May 15th in the eastern Pacific, and on June 1st in the central Pacific…both ending on November 30. These dates show the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. This was demonstrated when the first storm, Tropical Storm Adrian, was named on May 10th, and became the earliest-known tropical storm in the East Pacific since the beginning of the satellite imagery. For the third year in a row, the season featured above average activity in July, however, the season was the first to see no tropical cyclones form in the Central Pacific basin…since 2012.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/2017_Pacific_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/1280px-2017_Pacific_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

2017 Pacific hurricane season statistics

Storm
name
Dates active Storm category at peak intensity Max 1-min
wind
mph
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(millions USD)
Deaths
Adrian May 9 – 10 Tropical storm 45 1004 None None None
Beatriz May 31 – June 2 Tropical storm 45 1001 Southwestern Mexico 3.9 7
Calvin June 11 – 13 Tropical storm 45 1004 Southwestern Mexico, Guatemala Unknown None
Dora June 25 – 28 Category 2 hurricane 105 974 Southwestern Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands Minimal None
Eugene July 7 – 12 Category 3 hurricane 115 966 Baja California Peninsula, California None None
Fernanda July 12 – 22 Category 4 hurricane 145 947 Hawaii None None
Greg July 17 – 26 Tropical storm 60 1001 None None None
Eight-E July 18 – 20 Tropical depression 35 1007 None None None
Hilary July 21 – 31 Category 2 hurricane 105 972 Southwestern Mexico None None
Irwin July 22 – August 1 Category 1 hurricane 90 980 None None None
Eleven-E August 4 – 5 Tropical depression 35 1006 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Jova August 12 – 14 Tropical storm 40 1003 Western Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands None None
Kenneth August 18 – 23 Category 4 hurricane 130 952 None None None
Lidia August 31 – September 3 Tropical storm 65 987 Revillagigedo Islands, Western Mexico, Baja California Peninsula, Arizona, California Unknown 7
Otis September 11 – 19 Category 3 hurricane 115 965 None None None
Max September 13 – 15 Category 1 hurricane 85 985 Southern Mexico Unknown 2
Norma September 14 – 20 Category 1 hurricane 75 985 Revillagigedo Islands, Baja California Peninsula Minimal None
Pilar September 23 – 25 Tropical storm 45 1002 Western Mexico Unknown None
Ramon October 4 – 5 Tropical storm 45 1002 Southern Mexico None None
Selma October 27 – 28 Tropical storm 40 1005 Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras Unknown 17


Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi)
is
located about 643 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is located about 402 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 03B (Ockhi)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) remains active…as it moves through the Arabian Sea

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep central convection emanating from the low level circulation center.

Meanwhile, microwave imagery shows an eye feature, with a core of deep convection…along with a significant plume of cool dry air fully surround9ing the system.

TC 03B is tracking northward, which will turn northeastward over the next 24 hours.

An approaching trough of low pressure will soon increase wind shear, this combined with cooler waters and dry air entrainment, will significantly weaken the storm over the next 48 hours.

This storm is forecast to weaken significantly before making landfall over the west coast of India.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 01S (Dahlia)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is dissipating…as it moves through the South Indian Ocean – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a struggling system with pulsating convection…and little organization.

Upper level analysis shows strong easterlies from a ridge of high pressure southeast of the system, with moderately strong wind shear.

Sea surface temperatures in the region are conducive for further development, however they decline sharply south of 15 degrees south.

The center is forecast to remain together, with bouts of flaring convection over the next 24 hours. However, increasing wind shear and cooler water temperatures will mitigate the possibility of convective consolidation…and the system will soon dissipate within 24 hours.

There’s a possibility of regeneration several days out.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 687 NM northwest of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad and ill-defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates 93W remains in an area of light to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear, with weak difffluence aloft. Warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for TC formation.

Global models indicate 93W will track north to northwest into the Bay of Bengal…and develop over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

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