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Dec
02
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

The 2017 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has ended. Routine issuance of the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2018 for the Eastern Pacific. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The PDC will begin issuing its Tropical Cyclone Activity Reports for the Eastern Pacific on the 15th of May, 2018.

The 2017 Central Pacific hurricane season has ended. Routine issuance of the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1st, 2018. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The PDC will begin issuing its Tropical Cyclone Activity Reports for the Central Pacific on the 1st of June, 2018 as well.

The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was an active one, featuring 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially started on May 15th in the eastern Pacific, and on June 1st in the central Pacific…both ending on November 30. These dates show the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. This was demonstrated when the first storm, Tropical Storm Adrian, was named on May 10th, and became the earliest-known tropical storm in the East Pacific since the beginning of the satellite imagery. For the third year in a row, the season featured above average activity in July, however, the season was the first to see no tropical cyclones form in the Central Pacific basin…since 2012.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/2017_Pacific_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/1280px-2017_Pacific_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

2017 Pacific hurricane season statistics

Storm
name
Dates active Storm category at peak intensity Max 1-min
wind
mph
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(millions USD)
Deaths
Adrian May 9 – 10 Tropical storm 45 1004 None None None
Beatriz May 31 – June 2 Tropical storm 45 1001 Southwestern Mexico 3.9 7
Calvin June 11 – 13 Tropical storm 45 1004 Southwestern Mexico, Guatemala Unknown None
Dora June 25 – 28 Category 2 hurricane 105 974 Southwestern Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands Minimal None
Eugene July 7 – 12 Category 3 hurricane 115 966 Baja California Peninsula, California None None
Fernanda July 12 – 22 Category 4 hurricane 145 947 Hawaii None None
Greg July 17 – 26 Tropical storm 60 1001 None None None
Eight-E July 18 – 20 Tropical depression 35 1007 None None None
Hilary July 21 – 31 Category 2 hurricane 105 972 Southwestern Mexico None None
Irwin July 22 – August 1 Category 1 hurricane 90 980 None None None
Eleven-E August 4 – 5 Tropical depression 35 1006 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Jova August 12 – 14 Tropical storm 40 1003 Western Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands None None
Kenneth August 18 – 23 Category 4 hurricane 130 952 None None None
Lidia August 31 – September 3 Tropical storm 65 987 Revillagigedo Islands, Western Mexico, Baja California Peninsula, Arizona, California Unknown 7
Otis September 11 – 19 Category 3 hurricane 115 965 None None None
Max September 13 – 15 Category 1 hurricane 85 985 Southern Mexico Unknown 2
Norma September 14 – 20 Category 1 hurricane 75 985 Revillagigedo Islands, Baja California Peninsula Minimal None
Pilar September 23 – 25 Tropical storm 45 1002 Western Mexico Unknown None
Ramon October 4 – 5 Tropical storm 45 1002 Southern Mexico None None
Selma October 27 – 28 Tropical storm 40 1005 Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras Unknown 17

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) is located about 797 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is located about 588 NM northwest of Port Hedland, Australia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 03B (Ockhi)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) remains active…as it moves through the Arabian Sea

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad area of dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center, and filling in the previous eye feature.

Upper level analysis shows a weak high developing over the center, with improving wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the region are also very favorable.

Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the next 36 hours, and TC Ockhi will reach a peak intensity of 100 knots within 12 hours.

Shortly after 48 hours, a weakening trend will begin as sea surface temperatures begin to decrease…with increasing wind shear aloft. Cooler and drier air will also begin feeding into the system around this time, as 03B continues to track poleward and weakens further

This storm is forecast to weaken significantly before making landfall over the west coast of India just before 96 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 01S (Dahlia)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) remains active…as it moves through the South Indian Ocean towards Australia

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a rapidly weakening system with convection nearly gone.

Upper level analysis shows a ridge of high pressure south of the system with relatively low wind shear, moderately strong diffluence…and a degrading equatorward outflow channel.

Sea surface temperatures in the region are conducive for further development, however they cool sharply poleward of 15 degrees south.

Upper level conditions are forecast to improve slightly with a high pressure system developing over the system, which will allow the storm to maintain tropical cyclone strength of between 35-40 knots

TC 01S will pass into an area of increasingly unfavorable environment conditions after 48 hours. Cooler sea surface temperatures and dry air entrainment will significantly weaken the system…along with stronger wind shear aloft.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #13 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 626 NM west-northwest of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows scattered convection on both the north and western periphery of the low level center.

Upper level analysis indicates 93W is located in an area of light to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear, with weak difffluence aloft. Warm sea surface temperatures throughout the surrounding area will assist the development as it moves to the northwest.

Global models indicate 93W will develop over the next 72-96 hours, then increase once re-emerging over open water.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

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