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Nov
30
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) is located about 953 NM north of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is located about 811 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 03B (Ockhi)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) remains active…as it moves into the Arabian Sea

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center, with tightly curved banding wrapping into the center.

Imagery also depicts a well-defined eye feature, which signals an imminent rapid intensification phase…peaking at 90 knots between 48-72 hours.

TC 03B is forecast to track poleward through 72 hours, then re-curve northeastward…as it begins its extra-tropical transition. After 72 hours, increasing wind shear will develop as it approaches northwest India.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 01S (Dahlia)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) is now active…as it moves through the South Indian Ocean towards Australia

Here’s a satellite image, along with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center with improved convective banding, however the well-defined center is displaced along the southeast edge of the deep convection…due to moderately strong east-northeasterly wind shear.

TC 01S is forecast to turn sharply southward after 12 hours, while intensifying to a peak of 55 knots by 24 hours, although environmental conditions will remain marginally favorable…limiting intensification.

After 72 hours, Dahlia will track southeastward over cooler sea surface temperatures, and encounter increasing wind shear aloft associated with upper level westerlies over northwest Australia, which will serve to weaken the system…leading to dissipation as the storm approaches the Learmonth area.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 440 NM northwest of Singapore

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection obscuring a consolidating low level circulation.

93W is benefiting from a westward and poleward outflow, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, which is expected to decrease in the future. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm, which will support further development.

Global models indicate 93W will develop once it reaches the warm waters of the Andaman Sea…on its westward track across the Bay of Bengal. The possibility exists for development to be delayed should the system track over Sumatra.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

 

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