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Nov
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Rina) is located about 375 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Global Clouds, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and Error Cone for TC 19L (Rina)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/19L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif

Tropical Storm 19L (Rina) remains active over the central Atlantic…staying away from land

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

This Tropical Storm will pose a threat to shipping and cruising interests over the North Atlantic. Thereafter, but will bring impacts to the United Kingdom later this week.

Despite no longer being a tropical storm, Rina will bring moisture and gusty winds to the U.K. and Ireland. Rainfall will arrive later Friday and is expected to impact Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland and much of Ireland…before spreading into Wales and parts of England Friday night.

The heaviest rain is forecast across Ireland, Wales and southwestern England…with rainfall in excess of 2 inches possible, which may result in localized flooding and slow transportation.

The strongest winds associated with Rina will impact Ireland, Wales and southwestern England, where gusts of 40-50 mph are possible. A few wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible around Greater London late Friday into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds with advisory 12 were 50 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm Rina  Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 8 2017

A small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina, likely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing upper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT pass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina’s circulation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains a tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical shear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C along the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should become post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24 hours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48 hours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change in strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the previous forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now appears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east- northeastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer to the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best handled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC forecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 19L (Rina)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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