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Nov
07
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Rina) is located about 925 miles east of Bermuda

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 19L (Rina)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir4-animated.gif

Tropical Storm 19L (Rina) is active over the central Atlantic…staying away from land

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

This Tropical Storm will pose a threat to shipping and cruising interests over the North Atlantic. Thereafter, but will bring impacts to the United Kingdom later this week.

Despite no longer being a tropical storm, Rina will bring moisture and gusty winds to the U.K. and Ireland. Rainfall will arrive Friday and is expected to impact Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland, northwestern England and much of Ireland…before spreading into Wales and parts of England Friday night.

The heaviest rain is forecast across Ireland, Wales and southwestern England…with rainfall in excess of 2 inches possible, which may result in localized flooding and slower transportation situations.

The strongest winds associated with Rina will target Ireland, Wales and southwestern England, where gusts of 40-50 mph are possible. A few wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible around Greater London late Friday into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds with advisory 7 were 45 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm Rina  Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM AST Tue Nov 7 2017

Satellite images show that Rina has a sheared appearance with an asymmetric area of convection near and northeast of the center along with a large cloud shield in the northern semicircle. An earlier ASCAT pass had 35 kt winds well east of the center and, given that the pass likely missed the strongest winds, the wind speed is set to 40 kt on this advisory.

Rina is moving in a moderate shear, marginally unstable environment characterized by cool upper-level temperatures counteracting cool SSTs. These conditions along the path of the cyclone don’t change much during the next 24-36 hours, so a continuation of the slow increase in wind speed is forecast. After that time, Rina is forecast to move over much colder water into higher shear, which should cause weakening, and will eventually turn Rina into an extratropical cyclone in about 2 days. Most of the models show only slight strengthening over the next day or so, and the official forecast follows suit, close to the SHIPS model for a peak intensity.

Rina is moving northward, now at 16 kt. The storm should turn to the north-northeast around a high over the eastern Atlantic late tomorrow. Rina should move quite rapidly to the northeast on Thursday as it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The global models, other than some forward speed differences, remain in good agreement, and the latest forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the corrected-consensus models. Most of the guidance stretch the system out over the North Atlantic, causing the low to dissipate by 72 hours west of Ireland.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 19L (Rina)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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