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Nov
06
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 19L is located about 1405 miles west-southwest of the Azores

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Global Clouds, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii for TC 19L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir4-animated.gif

Tropical Storm 19L (Rina) is active over the central Atlantic…staying away from land

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

This Tropical Storm will pose a threat to shipping and cruising interests over the North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Depression 19L Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Mon Nov 6 2017

Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and 01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone’s center. Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20 kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track. After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids. The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in agreement with global model fields.

The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle, and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 19L (Rina)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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