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Nov
03
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Damrey) is located about 271 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, 3-hour precipitation accumulations, for Typhoon Damrey…and a tropical disturbance circled in yellow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/28W/imagery/ir-animated.gif

Typhoon 28W (Damrey) remains active…and will be moving inland over Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a well defined eye, surrounded by deep convection to the north and south.

Environmental analysis indicates the system is in a favorable area, with low to moderate 5-15 knot wind shear, and is tracking over an area of warm seas.

Typhoon 28W has begun to interact with coastal Vietnam, and any additional intensification will be brief and limited…as the land interaction will gradually weaken the system. TY Damrey is forecast to make landfall over south-central VN within 12 hours. After landfall, the rugged terrain of the Indo-China Peninsula will rapidly weaken the system…as it tracks westward.

TY Damrey will track back over water into the Gulf of Thailand prior to 48 hours as a weak tropical disturbance. Increased wind shear will further weaken the system…dissipating by the 72 hour mark.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #08 sustained winds were 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

>>> Meanwhile,  there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow above), being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 264 NM southwest of Ho Chi Minh

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

Global models are leaning more towards dissipation now, with only one predicting 95W becoming a weak tropical depression in the Gulf of Thailand…before crossing into the Bay of Bengal. All others forecast dissipation after interacting with the Malaysian Peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Damrey)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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