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Oct
27
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola) is located about 61 NM south of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 20E (Selma) is located about 100 NM south of San Salvador, El Salvador

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/wpac/ir4-l.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/27W/imagery/ir-animated.gif

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) remains active, and will be moving over Okinawa…and then clipping the south shores of the Japanese Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #34 sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS Model for TS 20E

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Storm Selma remains active over the northeast Pacific…and will be moving inland over El Salvador and Guatemala

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

This what will be a short-lived tropical system, will bring locally heavy rains, gusty winds, and rough surf to parts of Central American

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm Selma  Discussion Number 02
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Selma is a wind sheared tropical cyclone. Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave imagery show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a small, but persistent cluster of deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are still below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity remains at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data.

Selma has not become any better organized during the past several hours. The center of the tropical storm is partially exposed between a small curved band to its southeast and weakening convection to the west. Recent microwave data confirmed that Selma is a compact system, and the associated tropical-storm-force winds are estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Satellite fixes indicate that Selma has moved northward to north-northeastward during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the storm lies a little to the east of the previous NHC track prediction. A general northward motion is expected overnight, and that should bring the center of Selma near the coast of El Salvador by Saturday morning. The new NHC track forecast has shifted to the east based on the initial position and motion, and it lies close to the consensus models.

Little change in strength is likely while Selma approaches the coast. Once the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the system will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America by Saturday night.

The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with accumulations possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20E (Selma)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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