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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18L is located about 370 miles south-southwest of Havana, Cuba

 A disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this system

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),

Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized with increasing convective banding in the western semicircle. However, experimental shortwave infrared data from GOES-16 appear to show the presence of multiple low cloud swirls, and it is unclear if the definition of the center has improved to the point where the system has become a tropical cyclone. Thus, the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. There are no recent observations of the winds near the center, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is an uncertain 005/6. A deep-layer trough and developing frontal low over the northeastern United States are expected to cause the disturbance to turn northeastward and accelerate during the next 24 h, with a fast motion toward the northeast continuing until the disturbance is absorbed by the mid-latitude system. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, although there remains some cross-track spread due mainly to the uncertain center position. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model.

Environmental conditions appear at least somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 h, with light to moderate shear and strong upper-level divergence over the system. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed into the aforementioned mid-latitude system and become a trough rotating around the larger circulation. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward slightly from the previous forecast and now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt before absorption. However, the forecast lies at the lower edge of the intensity guidance, and if the system can develop a better- defined inner core it could strengthen more than currently forecast.


Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 18L

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico


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