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Oct
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola) is located about 306 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS Model for TS 27W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/wpac/ir4-l.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/27W/imagery/ir-animated.gif

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) remains active, moving towards Okinawa…and then well offshore of the Japanese Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show a partially exposed low level circulation center with a band of deep convection wrapping in from the south and west of the system.

Environmental analysis shows only marginally favorable conditions.

TS 27W is forecast to track northwest for the next 36-48 hours, with a shift to the north…ending up northeast.

Gradual intensification is forecast for the next 48 hours, as marginally favorable conditions persist. After 48 hours, the rate of intensification will increase, as outflow conditions improve. This should lead to a peak intensity of 70 knots…as a typhoon.

After 72 hours, TS Saola is forecast to rapidly accelerate to the northeast. Thereafter, a gradual dissipation will begin due to increased wind shear …and the environment becoming less favorable

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #30 sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92E/imagery/ir-animated.gif

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance in the northeast Pacific…which is hugging the Central American coast

According to the National Hurricane Center,

An area of disturbed weather, associated with an elongated area of low pressure, is located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Costa Rica.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward near the coast of Central America.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America through Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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