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Oct
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir4-animated.gif

The Atlantic Ocean remains quiet in terms of possible tropical cyclone development, although an area of warm water (1-3 degrees above normal for this time of year) in the western Caribbean…may become active in terms of tropical cyclone development in a few days.

This tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 93L. Here’s a satellite image, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing.

This potential system will bring heavy rain to parts of Central America in the near-term, with the chance of bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Florida by the weekend.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),

Cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to eastern Cuba are associated with a trough of low pressure.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. T

These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday.

Here’s a graphic showing the Rainfall Forecast through Saturday

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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