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Oct
25
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola) is located about 475 NM north-northwest of Yap

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and 5-day error cone for TS 27W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/wpac/ir4-l.gif

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) remains active, moving towards Okinawa…and then Japan (potentially clipping Tokyo)

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show a a consolidating system with deep flaring convection, located to the south of a broad low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis shows marginally favorable conditions, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

TS 27W is forecast to track northwest for the next 36 hours, with a shift to the north…ending up northeast by 72 hours.

Gradual intensification is forecast for the next 48 hours, as marginally favorable conditions persist. After 48 hours, the rate of intensification will increase, as outflow conditions improve.

After 72 hours, TS Saola is forecast to rapidly accelerate to the northeast. Thereafter, a gradual dissipation will begin due to increased wind shear …and the environment becoming less favorable

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #24 sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour Precipitation Accumulations…with an area of disturbed weather with a low chance of developing over the next 2-days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/ir4-l.jpg

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance in the northeast Pacific…which is hugging the Central American coast

According to the National Hurricane Center, this area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern North Pacific in a day or two.

Some additional development could subsequently occur as the system moves west-northwestward near the coast of Central America and southeastern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Saola)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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