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Oct
25
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Global Clouds and 3-hour Precipitation Accumulations…with an area of disturbed weather with a low chance of developing over the next 2-days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir4-animated.gif

The Atlantic Ocean remains quiet in terms of possible tropical cyclone development, although an area of warm water (1-3 degrees above normal for this time of year) in the western Caribbean…may become active in terms of tropical cyclone development later this week.

This tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 93L. Here’s a satellite image, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing.

This potential system will bring heavy rain to parts of Central America in the near-term, with the chance of bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Florida by the weekend.

Here’s a graphic showing the Rainfall Forecast through Saturday

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters.

Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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