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Oct
19
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 523 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 26W is located about 283 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 27W is located about 282 NM north of Chuuk

 

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Typhoon 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and should clip the Japanese islands near Tokyo

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show the associated deep convection has decreased, although the central bands remain tightly wrapped into a large, well defined circulation center.

Environment analysis indicates that the system is in an area of low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, which is offset by excellent radial outflow. Additionally, TY 25W is tracking over an area of very warm sea surface temperatures, and high ocean heat content.

Typhoon 25W is forecast to track northward over the next 24-36 hours. Environmental conditions will remain very favorable…leading to a possible rapid intensification, reaching a peak intensity of 110 knots.

After 48 hours, TY Lan will gradually weaken, as it moves into an area of increasing wind shear. After 72 hours it is expected to brush the coastal area near Tokyo.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #18 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots

>>> Tropical Cyclone 26W is dissipating over the Philippine Islands – Final Warning

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system has become disorganized as the low level circulation unraveled, and the convection has sheared westward.

Upper air analysis indicates indicates the system is in an area of strong 25 knot easterly wind shear, and subsidence associated with the outflow from typhoon 25W to the east-northeast.

Tropical Depression 26W is forecast to dissipate within 12 hours, due to the harsh environment…as it drags across the central Philippines.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #3 sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots

>>> Tropical Cyclone 27W is active east of Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the system has become disorganized as the low level circulation unraveled, and the convection has sheared westward.

Upper air analysis indicates indicates the system is in an area of strong 25 knot easterly wind shear, and subsidence associated with the outflow from typhoon 25W to the east-northeast.

Tropical Depression 26W is forecast to dissipate within 12 hours, due to the harsh environment…as it drags across the central Philippines.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #1 sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knot

>>> Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in orange above) which is being referred to as Invest 98B…located approximately 280 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show an elongated low level circulation with convection primarily located to the northeast.

The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment, due to divergence aloft, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and high sea surface temperatures…with higher values towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Global models are split as to the degree of intensification and organization prior to landfall, with some model runs not predicting 98B reaching tropical depression strength.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 26W Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 27W

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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