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Oct
18
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 404 NM north-northwest of Kayangel

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, Wind Radii, Global Clouds, and a 5-day error cone for TY 25W (Lan), a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea…and another in the South Indian Ocean

Typhoon 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and will become a super typhoon with time

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show broad deep convective banding most prevalent on the southern periphery, wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation center.

Environment conditions aloft…and at the ocean surface below are very favorable.

Typhoon 25W is forecast to accelerate north-northwestward over the next 36 hours. Environmental conditions will remain very favorable…as the system reaches super typhoon strength by 48 hours.

TY Lan will weaken, although remain a significant typhoon…as it generally heads towards the Kyoto and Tokyo area of the Japanese Islands.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #13 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

 

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in red above) which is being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 443 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates good diffluence aloft, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are not indicating the possibility of development in the next 24 hours, and enhanced southwesterly flow feeds into the circulation. However, the system should remain fairly weak and short-lived, as it tracks eastward and gets absorbed into nearby Typhoon 25W.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance (circled in orange above) which is being referred to as Invest 98B…located approximately 345 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show convection displaced over the western semi-circle, and the low level flow wrapping into a partially exposed center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with weak easterly diffluent flow.

Invest 98B is located in an area of low to moderate 20 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm with higher values towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Global models indicate a gradual intensification as the system tracks northwestward to northward over the next 2-days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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