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Oct
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 186 NM northwest of Kayangel

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, Global Clouds for TC 25W (Lan)…and a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea

Tropical Storm 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and will become a very strong typhoon with time

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show broad cloud banding with deep flaring central convection obscuring the low level circulation center.

Wind shear is favorable and showing signs of improvement, with extremely warm sea surface temperatures.

TS 25W is forecast to accelerate north to north-northeastward over the next 12 hours. Environmental conditions will improve over the next 12-72 hours…as the system further consolidates. The very warm oceanic heat content will fuel a rapid intensification…reaching super typhoon strength by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, TS Lan will maintain its intensity as a significant typhoon…as it generally heads towards the Japanese Islands.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #9 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance (circled in yellow above) which is being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 221 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a broad low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows that the disturbance is currently located in an area of good upper level divergence, low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear…and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are not indicating development…as it moves slowly eastward towards the Philippines.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…focused on a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Bengal

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 98B…located approximately 430 NM east of Chennai, India

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show flaring convection associated with a broad low level circulation.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with weak easterly diffluent flow.

Invest 98B is located in an area of low to moderately strong 10-20 knot wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warm with higher values towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.

Global models indicate a gradual intensification as the system tracks northwestward to northward over the next 2-days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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