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Oct
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Lan) is located about 239 NM north-northwest of Koror, Palau

Tropical Storm 25W (Lan) is strengthening over the Philippine Sea…and will reach typhoon strength with time

Here’s a satellite image of this system, along with a looping satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show formative cloud bands wrapping in from the southern and eastern quadrants, which have deepened…although slightly displaced eastward of the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-25 knot wind shear, which is mostly offset by good radial outflow. In addition, along track sea surface temperatures remain conducive for development.

TS 25W will track just north of westward through the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system is expected to turn more northward, while favorable environmental conditions will persist, and allow for steady intensification. By 72 hours, TS 25W is expected to strengthen to a moderate typhoon with 90 knot winds.

After 72 hours, TS Lan will continue its northward progression, then after 96 hours, it will will turn north-northeast. Given the warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper level conditions…a period of rapid intensification is possible, reaching 110 knots within 120 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #6 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

There are two tropical disturbances noted in the northeast Pacific Ocean

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become significantly less organized since this morning due to very strong upper-level winds. In addition, the low has moved over colder waters, and development of this system is becoming less likely while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

2.) Finally, another low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Development of this system is not expected due to increasing upper-level winds and proximity of dry air.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 25W (Lan)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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