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Oct
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Post-Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 220 mile southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland – Last Advisory

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir4-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia is losing its tropical characterover the far eastern Atlantic…as a Category 1 system

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland Monday morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier.

Ophelia has become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that have tied a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes (now six), including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia’s center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours. Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past 6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north- northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts, warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Post-Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) Last Advisory

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low pressure, which is centered about 150 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Any development of this low while it moves generally northward over the western Atlantic during the next day or so is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds, and the system is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in a couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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