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Oct
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 635 miles east-northeast of the Azores

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir4-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Hurricane Ophelia remains active over the far eastern Atlantic…as a Category 1 system

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier.

Ophelia has become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that have tied a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes (now six), including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 90 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80 kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear, Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time). Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) The broad area of low pressure NHC has been tracking for a few days is now centered a little more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Further development of this system, if any, will likely ocurr while the low and its associated activity move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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