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Oct
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Khanun) is located about 200 NM west of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii…for TC 24W (Khanun)

Tropical Storm 24W (Khanun) will be moving over Hainan Island…and then on to the coast of Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this system

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show a low level circulation center, with deep convective banding wrapping tightly into a well-defined center.

Upper level analysis depicts a favorable environment, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Poleward and equatorial outflow both remain excellent…and sea surface temperatures remain warm.

TS 24W is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward through the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the system will turn westward and continue to increase in intensity.

By 36 hours, the intensity will peak at 80 knots, as the storm approaches Hainan Island.

In the extended period, TS Khanun will track west-southwestward and make a second landfall in northern Vietnam near 78 hours…and will weaken rapidly as it moves inland.

Maximum sustained winds as of JTWC Warning #7 were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots

 

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 300 NM south-southwest of Guam

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a slowly consolidating low level circulation center, with formative deep convective banding.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate a west-northwest to northwest track and decreasing wind shear over the next two days…with gradual intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 12-18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

Finally, the surface circulation of a nearly stationary low pressure system centered about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past few hours, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.

Some additional development of this system is possible through the next several days, and a tropical depression could form while it begins moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 24W (Khanun)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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