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Oct
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…with two tropical disturbances

However, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 98W…located approximately 423 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict flaring convection become more organized around a developing low level circulation…within an active monsoon trough.

The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment, due to good poleward divergence, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate that this disturbance will track to the northwest towards Luzon Island, while slowly consolidating or potentially merging with another area of convection (Invest 90W) with the trough over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 167 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict flaring convection, above a partially exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis at the edge of a region of low 10-15 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate that this disturbance will track to the northwest towards Luzon while slowly weakening…or potentially merging with another area  (Invest 98W) of tight turning with the trough over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

A broad area of low pressure centered over 600 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds will likely limit development of this system for the next day or two, but environmental conditions could allow some gradual development to occur thereafter while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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