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Oct
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 745 miles southwest of the Azores

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model…for TC 17L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

Hurricane Ophelia remains active over the far eastern Atlantic…

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Ophelia is, along with other current information

Hurricane Ophelia continues to strengthen, far out in the Atlantic

Hurricane Ophelia is not a threat to the United States, although potentially brushing parts of the Azores this weekend. Ophelia may become a post-tropical system next week…near the Irish Coast.

This could bring a period of high winds to the Emerald Isle…particularly the western half of Ireland early next week.

While the storm poses no threat to land at the moment, it will become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that will tie a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Ophelia  Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Satellite images indicate that Ophelia continues to get better organized. The small eye has become better defined with deeper convection near the center than 6 hours ago. The initial intensity is increased to 75 knots, on the low end of the estimates since Ophelia is over marginal water temperatures and might not be as strong as the satellite suggests. Further strengthening is possible given the fairly low shear environment and marginally warm SSTs, assuming the hurricane moves around enough to not upwell much cooler water. Ophelia should keep hurricane-force winds before it transitions into a strong extratropical low in 3-4 days. The intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, near the model consensus. Almost all of the guidance now show Ophelia as a powerful extratropical low affecting Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain early next week.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the northeast, caught in an area of light steering south of a flat trough in the mid-latitude Atlantic. This trough is forecast to amplify over the central Atlantic late Thursday, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few days. Little change was made to the forecast track, leaning on the ECMWF side of the consensus, which results in generally a faster track than the previous prediction. Although all of the guidance keep the center offshore of the Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the eastern Azores on Thursday because of the increasing wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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